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A monthly market letter reports that the Omicron COVID variant, identified in South Africa, has become the leading market variable. Global equities fell 2-6% and crude dropped more than $10 per barrel the Friday after Thanksgiving, and corn, wheat and soybean futures hit three-week lows on Tuesday after WHO and Moderna statements.
Pandemic-driven risk aversion cut energy and grain prices, reducing feed input values. Demand uncertainty from lockdown fears continues to weigh on the complex.
iasg.comChad BurletDec 1, 2021After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 14 past disease events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (29% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 32 past bearish disease events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -5.2% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -15.0% to -2.4%), and -5.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
