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China's hog market is under lockdown restrictions as African swine fever spreads, with live hog prices in Liaoning falling to a level below profitability while prices in Zhejiang spiked 23% since early August. The north-south price gap has widened to as much as three times normal levels.
Culling and movement restrictions shrink China's hog herd and feed demand over time, which is bearish for soymeal and corn demand, while southern pork shortages raise prospects of imports and support hog prices.
reuters.comDominique PattonSep 6, 2018After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
