
Cargill closed animal-feed mills in China, partly because African swine fever has cut demand for feed ingredients such as soymeal and premixes. Cargill executives say recovery could take 24 to 36 months and most closed plants will not reopen.
Lasting loss of Chinese feed production capacity reduces soymeal and feed ingredient demand, a bearish signal for meal prices over the medium term.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.