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African swine fever has spread through China and neighboring countries since August 2018, with about 22 percent of China's pig herd lost to disease and culling according to Rabobank. Officials report 1.2 million pigs culled in China, which analysts say is an underestimate.
The disease is spreading to Mongolia, Russia, Cambodia and Vietnam.
A major fall in China's hog herd sharply cuts feed demand for corn and soymeal, which is bearish for those feeds, while raising import demand for pork and poultry, supporting those prices.
vox.comVox StaffJun 6, 2019After 177 past bullish disease events, HOGS moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, CORN moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, SBM moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
