
The Philippines reported African swine fever and culled more than 7,000 pigs, adding to culls in China, Vietnam, Laos, Mongolia and Cambodia. The UN says the disease will keep spreading because small farms lack resources to protect their herds.
Large pig herd losses in Asia reduce regional pork supply and feed demand, which is bearish for hog prices and soymeal and corn consumption, though higher pork prices in China partially offset this.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.