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An Asian Development Bank blog reports that African swine fever has cost Asia between $55 billion and $130 billion, including up to $77 billion in lost revenue. The virus, first confirmed in Asia in August 2018, has a 90-95% fatality rate in pigs, has no effective vaccine, and has prompted widespread culling and movement bans.
Large pig herd losses across Asia cut demand for feed grains and soymeal while shifting protein demand toward poultry and other meats, pressuring hog prices and feed use in the region.
blogs.adb.orgThomas R.D. Weaver Agriculture, Livestock ConsultantMay 27, 2020After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
