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A surge in African swine fever infections in China is expected to reduce hog output later this year, according to farm managers and analysts. Infections surged after the Lunar New Year, with positive detections in a single month reaching the full-year 2022 level.
Analysts estimate infection rates in northern production areas may be near 50%.
A sharp fall in Chinese hog output would tighten pork supply and lift prices, but reduced herd size also lowers feed demand for corn and meal over time.
agriculture.comReutersMar 15, 2023After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
