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African swine fever has spread to 12 Chinese provinces over the past three months, covering more than half of the country's pig population. The virus has a near-100% fatality rate and no vaccine is available.
Heavy pig losses in China cut hog numbers and feed demand, which lowers soymeal consumption and pressures soybean import needs while pushing up pork prices. The scale of the spread makes this a major driver for feed markets.
theguardian.comLily KuoOct 24, 2018After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
