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Rabobank analyst Lief Chiang expects African swine fever to depress China's feed consumption, especially hog feed, in 2019. Rabobank forecasts China's pork output could fall 25% to 35% in 2019, with soymeal usage declining only modestly due to higher inclusion rates and poultry growth.
Lower hog feed use reduces China's soybean and soymeal import demand, which is bearish for soybeans and soybean meal prices even though the decline is partly cushioned by feed efficiency gains and poultry growth.
rabobank.comLief ChiangApr 24, 2019After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
