
African swine fever has reduced China's hog numbers and feed demand, raising doubts about Beijing's pledge to buy 10 million metric tons of additional US soybeans. Analysts question whether China has the appetite for the purchases given large global stockpiles.
Lower Chinese crush demand and doubts over purchase commitments weigh on soybean and soymeal prices.
After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.