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Oil World's David Mielke says African swine fever has cut China's soybean crush by up to 10 million tonnes a year, reducing soymeal output and soybean oil supply. Canola oil imports into China, including via the UAE, have grown strongly, and a tight palm oil market could push China to buy more Canadian canola.
Lower Chinese crush is bearish for soymeal and soybeans, while tighter vegetable oil supplies are bullish for canola and oil prices, with possible Chinese canola buying supporting canola prices.
realagriculture.comRealAgriculture News TeamFeb 3, 2020After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 16 past disease events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.5%), and -7.7% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 13 past disease events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.2%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
