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Soybean oil and palm oil prices in China climbed to their highest since mid-2018 as African swine fever slowed soybean crushing and reduced soyoil output. Open interest in Dalian soyoil and palm oil futures hit a record, with volumes at multi-year highs amid heavy speculative trading.
Slower crushing from ASF-related demand shifts reduces soymeal output while lifting oil prices, and speculative volatility raises near-term price risk for buyers of vegetable oils.
chinaeconomicreview.comNov 29, 2019After 13 past disease events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.2%), and -4.6% over 20.
After 16 past disease events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.5%), and -7.7% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 12 past bullish disease events, Soybeans moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
China's swine-fever-driven drop in soybean crushing cut soyoil output, pushing Dalian palm and soyoil to highs with record speculative interest, which lifted palm prices through substitution and sentiment.
