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A second wave of African swine fever is estimated to have killed up to eight million pigs in China since the start of 2021, according to analyst Simon Quilty. He argues China's claims of herd recovery are unrealistic given piglet and hog prices that remain several times pre-outbreak levels.
Weaker Chinese herd rebuilding implies sustained meat import demand, which supports global pork and protein prices and feed grain and meal demand.
ukragroconsult.comMar 5, 2021After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
