Chinese soybean demand has stayed stronger than expected despite losses of 20 to 70 percent of its hogs to African swine fever. An INTL FCStone analyst estimates hog feeding is down 45 percent yet soybean demand has fallen only about 10 percent, partly because poultry feed use has grown.
Firm Chinese soybean and meal demand supports US and Brazilian soybean prices, though the resilience may be temporary if hog-related feed cuts eventually flow through to crush volumes.
After 12 past bullish disease events, Soybeans moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.