African swine fever has affected feed production in China and Germany differently. China's hog feed output rebounded 15% to 16% in 2020 as herds were rebuilt and farms consolidated, and Rabobank notes rising commercial feed penetration and heavier hog weights that raise feed use.
Chinese hog herd rebuilding and heavier finishing weights support sustained demand for feed grains and meals. The story describes trends rather than a new shock to prices.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.