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Brett Stuart of Global Agri-Trends argues that China has lost about 60% of its hog herd to African swine fever, leaving a global protein gap that other meats cannot fully fill. He estimates China would remain roughly 17 million tonnes short of pork-equivalent supply even after maximum imports.
Sustained Chinese protein shortfall supports import demand for pork, poultry and beef and underpins global protein prices, with indirect support for feed grain and meal demand.
thepigsite.comSarah MikesellOct 6, 2020After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
