China's agriculture ministry confirmed a new African swine fever outbreak in Guangdong province, affecting a farm where 1,015 pigs were kept, 214 of which died and the rest were destroyed. Illegal pig movements are blamed, and two new ASF virus strains have been detected in sows at a leading Chinese pork company.
New ASF strains linked to smaller litters could reduce Chinese sow productivity and pork output over time, supporting demand for feed grains and meal imports and firming hog prices.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.