China's pork prices are rising as African swine fever continues to deplete its pig herd, with more than 1 million pigs dead or culled since August 2018. Official data showed pork prices up 18.2% year-on-year in May, and the country is relying more on imports.
A shrinking Chinese herd cuts domestic feed demand and lifts global demand for imported pork and protein, supporting meat and feed ingredient prices, particularly soybean meal demand in the medium term.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 98 past neutral disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.