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China reported an African swine fever outbreak on a farm in Xinjiang and carcasses were found discarded in the Yellow River. Reuters and Bloomberg reporting also notes record US and Brazilian soybean imports by China as its hog herd recovers.
New outbreaks raise doubts about the pace of Chinese herd rebuilding, which weighs on feed demand, though record soybean imports continue to support soybean and meal demand.
farmpolicynews.illinois.eduKeith GoodMar 29, 2021After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 69 past disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 98 past neutral disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
