
Alltech's 2019 Global Feed Survey put China's 2018 swine feed output at 79.6 million tons, still the world's top, with 42% of Chinese feed going to pigs. Alltech says ASF could significantly reduce Chinese feed output and pork production in 2019 and 2020.
Expected shrinkage in China's hog herd and feed output would cut demand for corn, soymeal and other feed ingredients, a bearish factor for feed prices.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.