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ADM CFO Ray Young said African swine fever in China has lifted soybean processing margins for animal feed so far, with the full meal-market impact still expected later. ADM expects $500-600 million in incremental pretax earnings improvement in 2020.
Rabobank projects China's hog feed use will fall 40% in 2019 and overall animal feed consumption will drop 17%.
Strong demand for soybean meal from countries expanding livestock to replace lost Chinese pork supports meal prices and crush margins, while China's shrinking feed use is a bearish offset.
feedstrategy.comAnn ReusNov 15, 2019After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 12 past bullish disease events, Soybeans moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
