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A new variant of African swine fever is spreading in China, prompting small and medium hog farmers to liquidate herds. StoneX estimates China's hog herd at 60 to 65 percent of pre-ASF levels.
China has notified the USDA of four new outbreaks since late January.
Slower hog herd rebuilding reduces demand for soymeal and feed grains from China, which is bearish for soybeans, soymeal and corn. Analysts see it as a potentially major bearish factor in 2021 if the disease is not contained.
producer.comSean PrattApr 22, 2021After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
