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Ukrainian sunflower and soybean prices may fall as India, the largest vegetable oil importer, imposed a 21-day national quarantine that is expected to cut its vegetable oil demand by about 25%. Brazil's soybean harvest is 76% complete with output above 125 million tonnes, and the real's devaluation pushed Brazilian soybean export prices to $340-345/t FOB.
Lower Indian vegetable oil demand, lower oil prices reducing biofuel demand, and rising Brazilian soybean supply all point to weaker vegetable oil and soymeal prices.
graintrade.com.uaMar 31, 2020After 13 past disease events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.2%), and -4.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 10 past bearish disease events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.0% to +1.3%), and -8.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
