
Prices for commodities including natural rubber, coal and crude palm oil fell in February as demand from China weakened. The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is expected to push prices lower further during the Chinese New Year slowdown.
Reduced Chinese industrial and consumer demand weighs on regional commodity exports, including palm oil. Lower import demand from China pressures Southeast Asian vegetable oil prices.
After 10 past bearish disease events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.0% to +1.3%), and -8.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Links the coronavirus-driven fall in Chinese demand to lower commodity prices including crude palm oil, consistent with a broad risk-off demand shock.