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ProAg summarizes Iowa State University research showing African swine fever has continued through China's hog industry, with 114 cases from November 2018 to late March 2019. Official culls were modest, but inventory data show hog numbers fell 14.1% over December to February, and sow inventory dropped 13%.
A much larger real herd contraction than reported implies sustained lower feed demand in China, which is bearish for corn, soymeal and soybean prices.
proag.comKaren Braun ✔ @kannbwxApr 22, 2019After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
