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China is facing a resurgence of African swine fever, which previously wiped out nearly half its hogs. Fresh outbreaks have been reported across various regions over the winter.
The disease could push up pork prices in the country.
Disease-driven herd losses reduce hog supply and could lift pork prices, supporting hog markets and reducing feed demand later in the year once culling takes effect.
bloomberg.comHallie GuMar 17, 2023After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
