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China's pig stocks are dwindling and pork prices are rising as African swine fever has led to culling of more than 1 million pigs. The China Meat Association estimates pork output may fall 15% to 20% in 2019, and Rabobank forecasts herd size could halve year on year.
A sharp drop in Chinese hog numbers reduces feed grain and meal demand from the hog sector over time, though higher pork prices support substitution demand for poultry feed.
caixinglobal.comDu Caicai, Ren QiuyuJul 30, 2019After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
