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African swine fever has been detected in at least 23 Chinese provinces, with more than 600,000 pigs culled. Restocking restrictions mean farms may cut herd rebuilding by up to 20%, forcing China to buy more hogs and feed from overseas.
Lower Chinese herd restocking reduces near-term feed demand, though future import needs for pork could support imported meat and feed grains later.
caixinglobal.comJan 11, 2019After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
