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Simon Quilty's final report in a series says China's ASF culls rose from 220,000 to 470,000 pigs in one week, and the disease is now a chronic epidemic. He expects a restructuring of China's pig industry over five years, relying on imported pork, beef, sheepmeat and chicken.
A prolonged ASF epidemic and pig herd restructuring in China should lift import demand for pork substitutes and feed, supporting prices for protein-linked feed ingredients.
beefcentral.comGuest AuthorNov 19, 2018After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 145 past neutral disease events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
