
China's beef production is expected to expand as high prices for all meat proteins, driven by African swine fever cutting domestic pork output, encourage herd growth. A USDA GAIN report forecasts China's 2021 pork output up 14% to 47 million tonnes, though analysts question that given new ASF outbreaks and pork reserve releases.
Substitution toward beef raises import demand and supports global beef and cattle prices, while a shortfall in pork supports demand for alternative proteins and feed-linked markets.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.