
China's live hog price fell almost 7% in a week to 14.06 yuan per kg, the lowest since late June and the biggest weekly drop this year. Fresh disease outbreaks led farms to send more pigs to slaughter.
Sow numbers were 3.4% above a normal level at the end of September.
Disease-driven forced selling on top of an oversupplied market pressures hog margins and lowers producers' demand for feed, which is bearish for hog prices and feed ingredients.
After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.