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China's 2016 pork output is estimated at 52 million tonnes, about 9% below the prior year, as PEDv outbreaks killed many piglets and small family farms were cut. Pork prices swung through 2016, peaking in summer and falling in autumn as cheap imports arrived, and China is expected to keep relying on imports into 2017.
A sustained drop in Chinese domestic pork output and continued import demand point to higher feed use for rebuilding herds, supporting grain and meal demand, while cheap imports cap domestic hog prices.
zmp.deDec 31, 2016After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
