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China's pig herd is rebounding quickly after African swine fever, with the herd up 31% year on year in August. Pork output will recover more slowly because many new breeding females are lower-quality three-way crosses that produce smaller litters.
Faster herd rebuilding lifts feed demand for corn and soymeal, but slow pork output recovery keeps China's import needs for feed ingredients elevated.
financialpost.comReutersOct 1, 2020After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
