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African swine fever decimated China's swine herd in 2019, with inventories down over 40 percent and pork output down over 30 percent in late 2019. Chinese pork prices surged, creating export opportunities for US pork despite retaliatory tariffs.
Sharply lower Chinese hog supply sustains import demand for pork and feed ingredients, supporting US hog prices and grain and meal demand.
ers.usda.govFeb 3, 2020After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
