
A Texas A&M economist says the loss of Mexican feeder cattle imports, which averaged about 26,000 head a week in 2024, is hitting US feedlots and packing plants. Screwworm cases remain in Mexico, though none have been detected in the US.
Removing about 26,000 feeder cattle weekly from supply reduces feedlot placements and beef output, supporting higher feeder cattle and beef prices.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.