
May feeder cattle futures rose $31.45 over three weeks and June live cattle gained $17.38 as U.S. cattle inventories fell to multi-decade lows after drought-driven herd reductions. Imports from Mexico remain suspended due to New World screwworm, further tightening feeder supplies.
Shrinking inventories and blocked Mexican feeder imports limit available cattle and beef output, supporting higher cattle and beef prices.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Multi-decade-low inventories and suspended Mexican imports from screwworm are the structural supply drivers behind the rally.