A pet food industry article warns that highly pathogenic avian influenza in the US could reduce poultry-based ingredient supplies if it reaches commercial flocks. It also flags the risk that African swine fever could devastate the US pork industry, with estimated losses above US$50 billion over a decade.
A spread of avian influenza into commercial poultry would tighten chicken supply and support prices. An ASF incursion into US hogs would be a major shock to pork supply and related protein prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.