
China's breeding sow stock rose 0.6% month-on-month in October, the first increase since April 2018, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Overall pig stock fell 0.6% in October, a smaller decline than in prior months.
Pork prices rose 20.2% month-on-month in October and roughly doubled year-on-year.
Early herd rebuilding signals a slow recovery in Chinese pork supply, so import demand for feed and meat should stay firm into 2020, supporting feed grains and meal prices.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.