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A risk management commentary notes feed costs are under control due to large corn and soybean harvests. It says African swine fever has spread to southern Chinese provinces and to the Vietnam border, and that China levies a 62% duty on U.S. pork, leaving the U.S. as a supplier of last resort.
Cheap feed supports hog margins, while tariffs limit U.S. pork export gains from Chinese demand, so the price upside for U.S. hogs is capped.
nationalhogfarmer.comChip WhalenOct 29, 2018After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
