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EFSA reports that highly pathogenic avian influenza cases in European poultry and water birds have risen since summer 2022. The first year of the epidemic saw 2,520 poultry outbreaks and about 50 million birds culled across 37 countries, and the virus persisted through summer with no clear season break.
Sustained European poultry losses reduce bird numbers and can lower demand for feed grains and meals, while culling adds supply uncertainty for poultry meat. The scale of losses supports a bullish view for European poultry and bearish for feed demand.
efsa.europa.euDec 20, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
