
The USDA's August Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook shows July hog slaughter about 4% lower than last year, linked to unusually high PRRS outbreaks in the second quarter. USDA cut its 2025 pork production forecast by 1% to 27.7 billion pounds.
Disease-driven supply losses tighten pork output and support hog prices, which reduces near-term pork supply and can affect feed demand from hog producers.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 98 past neutral disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.