The USDA and FDA met with US pork groups on September 5, 2018 to evaluate measures to keep African swine fever out of the United States. Officials said feed risk cannot currently be defined or validated, so a feed testing strategy is not feasible for now.
Ruling out imported feed testing for now keeps feed trade flows intact, but any future ASF incursion in the US would sharply cut hog numbers and pressure demand for feed ingredients.
After 69 past neutral disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 98 past neutral disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.