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Concerns over a heavily mutated Covid-19 variant, B.1.1.529, triggered overnight global stock and oil price declines and a bond rally amid heavy risk-off trade. Grain and livestock futures did not trade overnight, but spillover pressure was expected at the open after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
Scientists had fewer than 100 confirmed cases and had not yet drawn conclusions.
Expected spillover selling could pressure grain and livestock futures, while lower oil prices reduce biofuel and feed-cost support. Uncertainty over the variant's severity keeps volatility elevated.
profarmer.comBrian GreteNov 26, 2021After 175 past bearish disease events, CORN moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 50 past bearish disease events, SOY moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 14 past disease events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (29% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 70 past bearish disease events, LCATTLE moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.0%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Omicron-driven global risk-off selling in equities and crude, with pressure expected at the post-Thanksgiving open, is the most direct sentiment trigger for the corn decline.
