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Commodity markets fell on January 27-28, 2020 as coronavirus fears threatened Chinese demand for crude oil, soybeans, and other goods, with energy, base metals and grains down more than 1.5%. China extended its Lunar New Year holiday, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index slipped 1.1%, while gold rose as a safe haven.
Expected drops in Chinese consumption and construction activity lower demand expectations for soybeans, grains and crude, while safe-haven flows into gold reflect broader risk aversion.
caixinglobal.comJan 28, 2020After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 14 past disease events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (29% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 26 past bearish disease events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -6.0% over 5 sessions (15% higher; middle half -13.3% to -2.0%), and -6.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Coronavirus-driven commodity selloff on Jan 27-28 hit grains including wheat via fears of weaker Chinese demand and risk-off sentiment, matching the timing of the 1-day drop.
Broad commodity selloff on Jan 27 with energy down over 1.5% shows the cross-asset flight from China demand risk that weighed on crude.
Broad commodity selloff on Jan 27-28 on threatened Chinese demand included crude, showing cross-market risk-off.
