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African Swine Fever has spread to every province in mainland China and is estimated to affect 150 to 200 million pigs. USDA warned it will be a game changer for the oilseed complex, projecting a possible 42 million ton drop in China's soybean import demand through 2019/20.
Sharply lower hog feed demand in China cuts soybean and soybean meal import needs, which is bearish for soybean and meal prices and weighs on global oilseed balances.
marketwatch.comMyra P. SaefongMay 15, 2019After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
USDA's warning of a large drop in China's soybean import demand from ASF is bearish for the oilseed complex.
