
Reuters reported that US corn and soybean sales are at a 14-year low ahead of the new marketing year. Soybean sales are weak amid the ongoing trade war with China, and corn demand is hurt by African swine fever in China, which has reduced feed demand.
Weak export commitments and reduced Chinese feed demand from African swine fever point to bearish pressure on US corn and soybean prices and on meal demand.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.