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African swine fever has spread across Asia after first appearing in China in August 2018, and estimates of China's hog herd losses range from 20% to 30% officially to much higher unofficially. US red meat and poultry supplies stayed ample in 2019, and pork exports rose sharply.
Pork losses in China reduce feed demand for hogs and push buyers toward poultry and other proteins, which supports chicken prices and raises demand for US pork exports.
meatpoultry.comKeith NunesJan 17, 2020After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
