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The OIE confirmed African swine fever in Tibet, with three outbreaks in Linzhi and 5,695 swine culled. China has reported 118 ASF outbreaks across 28 provinces since August 2018, and about 1 million pigs have been culled.
ASF spreading to every corner of China cuts pig herd size and pork output, which increases imported pork and feed grain demand and supports hog and feed prices.
meatpoultry.comErica ShafferApr 10, 2019After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
ASF spreading to Tibet and the culling of pigs in China reinforce expectations of reduced Chinese pork output and higher import demand, supporting sentiment.
