MEAT+POULTRY's year-end review says African swine fever became a major global animal health concern in 2018, with China reporting at least 90 outbreaks across 22 provinces. It notes the virus spreads through pork products and contaminated feed ingredients and has moved toward Germany, Belgium and Romania.
ASF's spread across China and into Europe is reducing hog supply and reshaping global pork trade, which lifts demand for alternative proteins and feed ingredients while pressuring hog prices.
After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.