
Rabobank's Global Animal Protein Outlook 2020 says African swine fever will overwhelm global protein growth, with Chinese pork output falling a further 10 to 15% in 2020. Australian beef and sheepmeat prices are expected to stay strong as global supply stays limited.
Deep Chinese pork cuts sustain demand for beef and sheepmeat imports, supporting Australian cattle prices while lowering hog production and feed demand.
After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.